Investors who don't pay attention to what foreigners do will be completely thrown off.
The question everyone is asking . . .Is this the bottom?
Dan says no. He says that there will be a severe drop further and then what? After all of the euphoria, more people will be laid off and the economy will continue to slow down. The only thing that is still a wild card is the foreign money sitting on the sideline, waiting while our dollar is circling the drain. When the dollar stops falling, it's going to free up this money that has been waiting, and these foreigners are anxious to scoop up all of this real estate, stock and companies, taking advantage of all of these bargains in the United States.
When the dollar starts to get stronger, there will be a giant rush of assets into the United States and it will make everything go up and that would change all of the things that everyone normally expects.
So if I have to base it on what Americans do, I would say no, this is not the bottom. There is more room because Americans are still selling. Demand and buying power is strong and staying strong for the moment. Americans are still willing to sell everytime there is a lil bit of a rally. But if the foreigners come in here and start buying everything, if that's what's happening right now, then they can overpower that demand for a while and then the sellers will stop and hold out for better higher prices, and we can have another year of bull market.
So you can never tell what those foreigners will do. They are part of the game and most of us don't know how to could them in our math.
What do we need? If it is up to Americans to make the stock market rally, I think there are too many bulls, not enough bears--we need capitulation. We need everyone to just give up and sell out, so that it goes down far enough, so that it will be a bargain. Use up all of the supplies--historically, this is how bear markets have ended here, in the United States, with the exception 2006 and the bond market.
Listen to more here.
Monday, April 14, 2008
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